According to the latest reports from ICEF Monitor and data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), the international education market in Canada is undergoing an unprecedented shift. Between December 2023 and November 2025, the total number of international students in the country plummeted by more than 27.5%, marking a significant decline in Canada's international enrollment.

Widespread Decline in Student Numbers Detailed data reveals that in December 2023, Canada hosted a total of 994,800 international students (combining those with only a study permit and those with both a study and work permit). However, by November 2025, this figure had dropped to 721,230 students.

This sharp decline is most visible in the number of new arrivals. Statistics show that new student arrivals in the first 11 months of 2025 decreased by 60% compared to the same period in 2024. This is a direct consequence of policy barriers established in the first half of 2024, including a hard cap on foreign enrollment, new restrictions on post-graduation work rights (PGWP), and surging visa rejection rates.

Strategic Objectives of the Canadian Government Canadian Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab emphasized that these changes are part of a roadmap to manage the temporary resident population. The Canadian government aims to reduce the proportion of temporary residents (including students and foreign workers) to less than 5% of the total population by the end of 2027.

As of October 2025, non-permanent residents accounted for approximately 6.8% of the population (about 2.8 million people). To reach the target of under 5% by the end of next year, the number of non-permanent residents must fall to approximately 2.08 million. This suggests that study permit regulations will likely remain strict in the near future.

Outlooks for 2026 - 2028 Canada's Immigration Levels Plan has outlined a specific reduction path:

• 2026: The target for new student arrivals is set at 155,000, a 49% reduction from the 2025 target.
• 2027 and 2028: Arrivals are expected to stabilize at approximately 150,000 students per year.

Compared to the 293,100 actual arrivals reported in 2024, these future targets indicate a significantly shrinking market.

Advice for Recruitment Agencies As Canada prioritizes reducing volume to focus on quality and social infrastructure balance, study abroad agencies must closely monitor changes in study permit requirements. Counseling for students should focus on highly competitive academic programs and the ability to meet the increasingly stringent standards set by the IRCC.

Source: ICEF